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Patient Flow Model

Challenge:

The  problem was that hospital managament in a Slovenian university hospital missed an appropriate  decision tool for makiing preparation for winter crisis because of seasonal or pandemic influenza spreading in community.  Because of the complexity of this phenomena simulation is the right approach.

Solution:

We have builded the hybrid simulation model of patient flow in hospital which is integrated with compartmental epidemic model of  influenza spreading  in community.

Results:

This model enables hospital managers making appropriate preparations for expacting increased number of infected patients, including pandemic plan. The model shows that vaccination is much more effective measure for prevention of nosocomial cases then isolation of infected patients. The most effective measure for decreasing boarding time at emergency department is reservation of beds for emergency patients at admission department. The model shows that we can expect  peak of epidemy in hospital earlier then in community.