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Alcohol Use Dynamics

Two groups (Control group and Intervention group) of 1,000 people each are compared with respect to alcohol usage and associated healthcare costs. A person can be in one of the four states: never user, recreational user, addict and quitter. People in each group start at age 0, simulation runs for 100 years. The age of first usage, time to addiction, and time to quit are given as rate tables with annual event probabilities, they were intentionally distorted in this model. The intervention is aimed both at preventing people from starting drinking and convincing them to quit.

The model was created with AnyLogic - simulation software / healthcare