RunTheModel - Policies for Ethanol in Brazil

Policies for Ethanol in Brazil

Sugarcane ethanol is now established as an important component in the Brazilian energy matrix. This status was achieved through a long lasting, expensive incentive program that started in the 1970s and with ongoing research and development.
But the industry has had ups and downs and during 2011/12 it went through a major crisis with a shortage in supply, surge in prices and a shift in demand from ethanol to gasoline.

This model explores recommended policies by the government to deal with this and future crises by replicating the current and possible future scenarios and testing appropriate strategies.

The simulations show that a policy to allow gasoline prices to grow, adjusting to international prices, would have a highly positive impact for the industry while also contributing to public savings. The dosage of the policies can be tested under different scenarios with the presented model and flight simulator.

The model was created with AnyLogic - simulation software / Economics, Commodities