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SET2 - Sustainable Energy Transitions Dynamic Test Model 2.0 - Ecosystem Dynamics

806 runs

Added by Denes Csala

Application area: sustainable energy transitions, renewable energy, climate change

Simulation method: System Dynamics

SET2 - Sustainable Energy Transitions Dynamic Test Model 2.0

This model accompanies the article: A Net Energy-based Analysis for a Climate-constrained Sustainable Energy Transition (http://arxiv.org/abs/1503.06832)

Visit the project website (http://set.csaladen.es) to learn more.


Parameter Setup:

[name, type, default: value] - description

--- Renewable policy ---

[Starting EROEI, edit, default: 20, 5, 10, 20] - Starting energy return on energy investment value for modern renewables.
[CF in 2050, edit, default: 0.25, 0.15, 0.22, 0.82] - Capacity factor for modern renewables in year 2050 and after.
[Lifetime, edit, default: 25, 25, 25, 40] - Lifetime of modern renewables.
[Deploy time, edit, default: 3, 3, 3, 3] - Deploy time of modern renewables - years before the needed investment completes.
[EROEI learning rate, slider, default: 0.02, 0.08, 0.04, 0.02] - Average improvement rate of the EROEI of modern renewables per unit of power installed.

[Renewable energy ratio relative to wind generation, edit, default: 0.2, 0.6, 1.2, 1.5; 0.1, 0.2, 0.35, 0.5; 0.11, 0.1, 0.1, 0.1] - The relative fraction of end-use renewable energy over time, compared to a symbolic wind energy value of 1.

--- Emissions & Fossil policy ---

- Planned mode -
[emissions cap on, checkbox, default: on] - Adjusts whether the fossil emissions are forcibly reduced to zero by the timeframe set by the sliders (default: 2020-2055), following an S-curve trajectory.
[Keep fossils for base load, checkbox, default: off] - Sets whether to retain a portion of the fossil fuels, even if the co2 cap is turned on. Allows for the creation of compromise policies. The percentages specified are relative to the full, uncapped scenario (with each fossil fuel following its own default depletion trajectory). A good compromise policy which still fits into the carbon dioxide cap is a phase-out scenario over 2020-2040 and retaining 5% of oil, 20% of natural gas and 10% coal, respectively.

- Forced mode -
[emissions cap on, checkbox, default: on] - Adjusts whether the fossil emissions are forcibly reduced to zero, starting with the year set by the sliders (default: 2020), following a Hubbert-curve trajectory.
[emissions budget, radio, default: 990] - Sel ect the remaining fossil fuel emissions budget equal to IPCC RCP2.6 base value + interval.
[Asymmetric fossil phase-out, checkbox, default: off] - Sets whether to distribute the remaining fossil fuel emissions budget asymmetrically between the fossil fuels, specified by the relative ratios of the edit boxes. For example, since the emissions intensity of natural gas is lower than that of oil and gas, a greater proportion of the emissions budget used for gas yield more net available energy eventually.

--- Societal policy ---

[Per capita power demand, radio button, default: 2] - Sets per capita power requirement. The transition takes place as indicated by the two edit boxes, over an S-curve, fr om the BAU demand to the specified power value.


The SET project is being developed by Sgouris Sgouridis and Denes Csala at Masdar Institute, Abu Dhabi.
This online simulator has been developed by Denes Csala.

2015   |   Denes Csala   |   http://www.csaladen.es

(requires JAVA – follow https://www.java.com/en/download/help/jcp_security.xml this official guide by ORACLE if you are experiencing problems)

The model was created with AnyLogic - simulation software / sustainable energy transitions, renewable energy, climate change

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